The European electronics industry is in a panic. The supply situation for various components is catastrophic. As in the last allocation crisis in 2018, many buyers have learned nothing and are diligently ordering twice and three times in the hope of at least getting something somewhere. The result is requirement lists or orders from component manufacturers or component dealers that show far too much demand than is actually needed.
The component manufacturers have of course taken advantage of the situation and price increases of 400-500% are no longer uncommon (e.g. power electronics). Requirements that were previously blocked by a customer and are released again suddenly rise massively in price, as if automatic programs (bots) bid on the product and the price is driven up within a few seconds.
In addition, most component dealers have cut off direct access to their systems. So if you were able to enter your BOM into the retailer’s system in the past and then knew what you could get and when, you can no longer see anything. It’s as if you want to get something from the windowless warehouse and someone switches off the light. This makes it impossible to plan delivery dates. Some EMSs now only have a visibility of four weeks in terms of sales and deliveries.
Interestingly, a trend is also developing that could already be observed in 2018 with the allocation problems. Large component manufacturers are considering why they still need a middleman at all and whether it would not be better (and more profitable) for them to market their products directly and cut out the middleman.
The EMS companies are talking to their customers with the aim of concluding framework agreements by the end of 2023. At the same time, prices are increased and corresponding agreements are amended so that the additional costs can be passed on in the event of further price increases for components and there is a purchase guarantee for components that were ordered under the framework agreement. In some cases, advance payments are also agreed.
What sounds so obvious is sometimes not implemented consistently. Prices are raised too hesitantly and some companies are still intimidated by buyers who claim they can buy cheaper elsewhere. Those who want to risk the existence of their company will allow this to happen, but everyone else will no longer be intimidated by such stupid arguments.
As unlikely as it sounds, digitalization also has an influence here. As part of the introduction of the EMS SCOUT(www.ems-scout.de), we pointed out that 50% of buyers today live and work completely digitally and therefore need digital support when preselecting a production partner for electronics
(EMS) require digital assistance. But there is a second effect, which unfortunately is not necessarily positive. Some buyers also believe that sourcing electronic components is just as easy as ordering something from eBay or Amazon. Accordingly, it should come as no surprise if the automotive industry shuts down the construction programs completely and believes that it is then possible to start everything up again at the touch of a button. Attending an event such as the EMS Day(www.ems-tag.de) could be an instructive training course for many dispatchers and purchasers.
What impact are current developments having on the EMS industry in Europe? The smaller the company, the greater the loss of turnover in 2020. The majority of respondents to the forecast can be summarized as follows: almost all companies expected to achieve turnover at the 2019 level again in 2021 and then to have very good (mostly double-digit) growth again from 2022.
When the industry realizes that it has to plan for the longer term to ensure security of supply and therefore also place orders, incoming orders increase massively. However, if the delivery date of other associated components is postponed due to a missing part, sales do not increase and may even decline in some cases. In this case, a great book-to-bill factor is shown, which is no reason to cheer at all or should lead to the statement that the industry is on the rise. The EMS industry in Europe, which currently accounts for just under 10% of the global production volume, therefore remains turbulent and exciting.